Catching up on arms updates across the league, focused on recovery and performance in return from injury.
Joe Musgrove – San Diego Padres – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 92–94 mph | Movement: Vertical break slightly diminished; cutter showed sharp horizontal bite | Location: Primarily lower-third of the zone | Command: 65% strike rate in bullpen; missed high on several early heaters | K/BB: N/A (Simulated/Bullpen) | Workload: 60 pitches in March 4 exhibition; shut down mid-March for “crankiness.”
Musgrove’s recovery from October 2024 Tommy John surgery has hit its first significant speed bump. After an encouraging 60-pitch workload against Great Britain in early March, he was officially scratched from his mid-March rotation turn and slated for the IL to start 2026. Scouts noted his “cranky” arm following a March 8 session indicates a durability ceiling that the Padres aren’t willing to push. Expect a conservative 2026 role with a focus on a June return to the rotation; his effectiveness hinges on the recovery of his signature vertical movement, which looked flat during his high-stress exhibition appearance.
Josiah Gray – Washington Nationals – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 93.8 mph (avg) | Movement: Increased sweep on slider (+2 inches vs. 2024) | Location: Painting the black on both sides | Command: Elite; zero walks in recent live sessions | K/BB: 4 K / 0 BB across 3.0 IP (latest spring outing) | Workload: Built up to 55 pitches as of March 14.
Gray is the definitive success story of the 2024 “internal brace” era. Returning from a July 2024 procedure, he has looked remarkably polished this week, with his velocity already sitting at his career mean. His ability to attack hitters early in the count suggests his confidence in the elbow is absolute. The Nationals have him projected for the Opening Day roster, though they will likely cap his 2026 workload at 140–150 innings to protect the investment. He is currently the most “game-ready” arm of the post-TJ cohort.
Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 95–96 mph | Movement: Heavy sinker with 18 inches of horizontal run | Location: Establishing the inner half against RHH | Command: Solid in live BP; hitting spots with the sweeper | K/BB: N/A (Live BP session) | Workload: Two-inning simulated game scheduled for March 17.
Recovering from thoracic outlet decompression surgery, Wheeler has cleared the most dangerous hurdle: regaining feel and sensation in his fingers. His March 14 live BP session was a masterclass in efficiency, with his velocity already touching mid-90s without visible strain. While he won’t break camp with the team, his mechanics are fluid and free of the “short-arming” seen late in 2025. The Phillies view him as a late-April addition to the rotation, where he’ll likely function on a strict 85-pitch limit for his first month of action.
Hunter Dobbins – St. Louis Cardinals – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 94.5 mph | Movement: Ride-and-run profile; high spin rate (2450+ rpm) | Location: High-fastball focus | Command: Fringe; struggled with landing spot in backfields game | K/BB: 2 K / 1 BB in 1.1 IP (Backfields action) | Workload: Progressed to backfield game action on March 14.
Dobbins is physically back from his July ACL tear, but his “pitching” is ahead of his “fielding.” In his March 14 backfields debut, he was restricted from covering first base, showing the Cardinals are prioritizing the arm’s health over total defensive utility. His raw stuff is electric, and the arm strength is fully recovered from his previous Tommy John surgery. However, he will start the year on the IL to finalize PFP (Pitchers’ Fielding Practice) and conditioning. He projects as a high-upside #4 starter by mid-May if his lateral mobility returns.
Carlos Rodón – New York Yankees – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 92–93 mph | Movement: Slide-step delivery; slider showing 10-to-4 break | Location: Living in the “shadow zone” | Command: 30 pitches in live BP (March 14); found the zone consistently | K/BB: N/A (Live BP) | Workload: Slated for one Grapefruit League appearance before camp ends.
After October surgery to remove bone spurs, Rodón looks lighter and more mobile on the mound. While the velocity is currently a tick down from his peak, the “late life” on his four-seamer is encouraging. He is being “slow-played” to ensure no secondary inflammation occurs, but his progress between March 11 and 16 has been linear. He likely misses the first two turns of the rotation but remains the Yankees’ best bet for a high-strikeout returnee. Role expectation is a full starter’s workload by June.
Robbie Ray – San Francisco Giants – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 93–95 mph | Movement: Slider showed “normal” sharp 10-to-4 break; 62% whiff rate | Location: Relentless attack of the inner half | Command: 64 pitches / 15 batters retired; 0 BB | K/BB: 8 K / 0 BB in 5.0 IP | Workload: Completed 5.0 perfect innings on March 15.
Ray delivered the performance of the spring on March 15, anchoring a near-perfect game against Milwaukee. Recovering from 2023 Tommy John and subsequent 2024 setbacks, Ray has finally found his “flow state,” with his slider once again acting as a primary wipeout tool that he can throw in any count. His velocity is stable, and more importantly, his recovery between starts has been seamless. The Giants have cleared him for a full starter’s workload, and he enters 2026 as a high-end rotation stabilizer with no immediate innings restrictions.
Shane McClanahan – Tampa Bay Rays – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 94.8 mph avg (touched 96.8) | Movement: Changeup vertical drop was elite; 62% whiff rate | Location: Painting the bottom rail | Command: High volume of strikes (27 of 41 in prior start); improved to 7 Ks on March 15 | K/BB: 7 K / 2 BB in 3.2 IP | Workload: Built up to 3.2 hitless innings on March 15.
McClanahan is progressively rediscovering his pre-surgery “heat,” with his fastball now consistently touching 97 mph as of his March 15 outing against Pittsburgh. While he is still roughly 1-2 mph off his 2023 peak, his secondary stuff—particularly a devastating changeup—is already in mid-season form. The Rays have been methodical with his build-up, and while he won’t be a 200-inning workhorse in 2026, his efficiency suggests he will be a dominant force in 5-to-6 inning bursts starting in early April.
Jacob deGrom – Texas Rangers – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 97–99 mph | Movement: Extreme late “rise” on the four-seamer | Location: High-velocity elevator | Command: Minimal misses; 43 pitches for 3 innings | K/BB: 5 K / 1 BB in 3.0 IP (latest outing) | Workload: Confirmed for the Home Opener start after successful mid-March buildup.
Although his most recent box score performance was March 10, the March 15 intel confirms deGrom has been cleared for the Rangers’ home opener against Cincinnati. Scouts report that while the velocity is terrifyingly familiar, deGrom is still “thinking” through his mechanics rather than reacting naturally. His March 10 performance (5 Ks over 3 innings) served as the final medical clearance needed to avoid an IL stint to start the year. Expect a “hard cap” of 75–85 pitches for his first three starts of 2026 as he transitions from rehab mode to game-intensity trust.
Spencer Strider – Atlanta Braves – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 94.8 mph avg (touched 96.5) | Movement: New curveball profile added to his high-spin heater | Location: Attacking high and tight | Command: 61 pitches (43 strikes) | K/BB: 5 K / 1 BB in 4.0 IP | Workload: 4.0 scoreless innings completed March 11.
Strider’s March 11 outing against the Rays was his most significant step forward since 2024 surgery, showcasing a widened arsenal that includes a more prominent curveball to compensate for a slight dip in raw velocity (down from 97+ mph). He induced nine swinging strikes, five of which came on his slider, proving his “out-pitch” capability remains intact. The Braves’ focus for the remainder of March is workload management; he is being conditioned to handle a “high-leverage” role where he may not need 100 mph to be the staff ace.
Jeffrey Springs – Oakland Athletics – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 91–92 mph | Movement: Heavy fade on the changeup | Location: Targeting the outer half to righties | Command: 1.94 WHIP through mid-March; struggling with hit-parade | K/BB: 11 K / 11.1 IP (Total Spring) | Workload: Reached 11.1 total innings as of March 16.
Springs’ return from Tommy John has seen some statistical “rust,” notably a 7.94 ERA this spring, but his durability is the primary focus. He has logged more innings (11.1) than many of his peers in this rehab cohort, signaling that the Athletics are prioritizing “upside through volume” to test the elbow’s resilience. While his command is currently inconsistent—leading to a high WHIP—his swing-and-miss capability is slowly returning. He will likely start 2026 in the middle of the Oakland rotation with a “see-how-he-feels” approach to each 5-day cycle.
Cristian Javier – Houston Astros – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 91.5 mph avg | Movement: Horizontal sweep on slider decreased; “invisiball” rise lacking | Location: Struggled to find the upper-third; 3 walks | Command: Poor; 52 pitches (only 27 for strikes) | K/BB: 3 K / 3 BB in 1.2 IP (March 9) | Workload: Failed to finish the second inning in his March 9 start.
Javier is currently experiencing the “dead arm” phase often seen 18 months post-Tommy John. His March 9 outing against the Dominican Republic WBC squad was alarming; he labored through 52 pitches and lacked the vertical break that made his fastball elite in 2022. Scouts noted a lack of “sequencing” and mechanical fluidity, leading to the three walks. The Astros are standing by him, but his 2026 outlook is currently volatile; he may require a stint in Triple-A or a move to the bullpen to find his rhythm if the velocity doesn’t trend toward 93+ mph by April.
Dustin May – St. Louis Cardinals – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 97.8 mph avg (99.3 peak) | Movement: 14 sweepers / 14 sinkers; +2.4 mph vs 2025 | Location: Primarily low-and-away to RHH | Command: 42 pitches / 3.0 IP; 1 hit allowed | K/BB: 3 K / 1 BB over 3.2 IP (March 11) | Workload: Progressed from 3.0 IP (March 6) to 3.2 IP (March 11).
May is the “velocity king” of the rehab group, showing a massive 2.4 mph uptick over his 2025 metrics. His March 11 start against the Nationals highlighted a pitcher who has finally regained the “pure power” profile that made him a phenom. The Cardinals’ medical staff reports he is “bouncing back” exceptionally well from live sessions. Given his history of esophageal and elbow issues, St. Louis will likely deploy him on a 150-inning soft cap, but his current “stuff+” metrics suggest he could return to Top-40 SP status immediately.
Kodai Senga – New York Mets – [SP]
Metrics: Fastball velocity: 96.5 mph avg (98.6 peak) | Movement: “Ghost Fork” generating 50%+ whiff rate | Location: Bottom-rail focus | Command: 28 of 38 pitches for strikes | K/BB: 5 K / 0 BB in 3.0 perfect innings (March 13) | Workload: Added 30 supplemental bullpen pitches after his game exit.
Senga has erased any concerns about the shoulder inflammation that derailed his late 2025. In his March 13 masterpiece against the Marlins, he was effectively “unhittable,” using a 99 mph heater to set up a 68 mph curveball. The Mets are meticulously tracking his recovery; he is already throwing seven different pitch types with full confidence. He looks like a 200-K candidate for 2026, though the team will likely utilize a six-man rotation occasionally to manage his workload and ensure he remains the staff’s “X-factor.”
Twoseamers' The Baseball Fantasy 
Leave a comment