The arms keep dropping. Here’s where we stand heading into the final week of spring training, with fantasy impact notes for each.

The Big Names

Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL (SP) — Starting the ATL big three… Schwellenback underwent elbow surgery early in camp. This one stings for dynasty owners who bought in after his breakout. He was a consensus top-30 SP heading into drafts. The Braves are calling him a “mid-season addition” which in front office speak means July at the earliest, August realistically. If you’re contending, you cannot count on him for the first half. If you’re rebuilding, he’s a buy-low target right now — his value has cratered but the talent hasn’t changed. The dynasty asset is intact; the 2026 production is not.

Spencer Strider, ATL (SP) — Now dealing with a strained oblique on top of everything else. Atlanta’s rotation is cursed. Strider owners have been on a rollercoaster since the original arm issues, and this is another setback in what was supposed to be the comeback year. Hold if you have him — the ceiling is still elite — but temper expectations for a full workload in 2026.

Hurston Waldrep, ATL (SP) — Also had elbow surgery. Three Braves pitchers down before the season starts. For deep dynasty leagues, Waldrep was a stash with upside. He remains that, just push the timeline back 6-8 months. The stuff was legit before the injury.

Corbin Burnes, ARI (SP) — Tommy John recovery continues. The Diamondbacks are hoping for a July return, but TJ timelines are notoriously optimistic. Dynasty valuation: he’s 31 and coming off major surgery. The discount on his future production should be significantly higher than pre-injury. If someone in your league is selling at 60 cents on the dollar, that might still be an overpay depending on your contention window.

Gerrit Cole, NYY (SP) — Targeting May/June return from right elbow ligament repair. Cole at 35 coming off major elbow work is a risky asset. The stuff may still play — he’s one of the smartest pitchers alive — but the days of taking him as a top-10 SP in dynasty are behind us. Price him as a back-end SP1 with significant downside risk.

Josh Hader, HOU (RP) — Opening the season on the IL with biceps tendinitis, after missing the final two months of 2025 with a shoulder capsule strain. This is now two consecutive injury issues in the same arm region. Bryan Abreu steps into the closer role, and frankly, Abreu might be the better dynasty asset at this point. Younger, electric stuff, and he’s been a top-5 setup man for four years running.

Mid-Tier Arms to Monitor

Joe Musgrove, SDP (SP) — Tommy John recovery hit a snag. His return timeline has been pushed back, and at 33, the clock is ticking. The Padres rotation behind Pivetta and King is thin. Musgrove was a mid-round dynasty hold; he’s now a speculative stash at best.

Pablo López, MIN (SP) — Tommy John surgery in February. Gone for 2026. The Twins replaced him with Mick Abel in the rotation, which is actually an interesting dynasty pivot — Abel has the stuff to be a breakout arm if he puts it together.

José Berríos, TOR (SP) — Stress fracture in his elbow. Won’t be available for Opening Day. The Blue Jays say he’s pain-free and will resume throwing soon, but elbow stress fractures in pitchers are concerning. Monitor closely.

Justin Steele, CHC (SP) — Flexor tendon surgery plus UCL damage addressed. Targeting early summer return. Steele was quietly excellent before the injury. If he comes back healthy, he’s an undervalued dynasty asset because everyone has forgotten about him.

The Dynasty Angle

The theme: if you’re holding injured arms, the discount on their future value needs to be higher than you think. Every month of missed development time, every additional setback, compounds the uncertainty. The current value of a pitcher returning from TJ in July is dramatically lower than the same pitcher healthy in April — not just because of lost counting stats, but because of the elevated re-injury risk in the return season.

For contenders: resist the urge to hold injured aces on your MLB roster if your league has IL limits and to swap reasonably comparable locked innings for upside. The opportunity cost of that roster spot is real. Stash only the best on the IL, and trade away to rebuilding teams who can afford to wait.

For rebuilders: this is your market. Buy the elite injured arms from panicking contenders. The talent doesn’t disappear with a surgery and the risk reward opportunity is real. Your job is to buy future production at a discount, and injured aces are a big market inefficiency.